Strategy By Sean

SEAN BRACKEN
-Contributor

Since I have been called a good strategist by many, I thought I would put my strategies to the test for the Blue Horizon Daily blog. The topic of my first strategy is going to be the battleground strategy for Barack Obama so he can get 270 electoral votes and win the election.

According to media outlets, many battlegrounds are in play. Many think the states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and even Montana are up for grabs this time. Both candidates entered the general election race by wanting to change the map around. John McCain wanted to get some blue states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Oregon to go red. Barack Obama wanted states like Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada to go blue.

As of now, Barack Obama has done a better job of making red states blue. Already, Obama has taken New Mexico and Iowa and threw them in the blue column. Colorado and Nevada lean blue, with the majority of the latest polls showing Obama with a slight advantage.

Then states that have been really tight include Virginia and Florida, mainly because McCain has ignored those states and assumed he would get them this time. That is a strategy by McCain that could bite him in the end, since the polls are as close as they are there.

Obama hasn’t been doing everything right either. Lately ever since he picked Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate, they have traveled to the states of Pennsylvania and Ohio constantly. Both states have polls that have been consistently going one way or the other. A new Rasmussen poll in Ohio shows McCain leading Obama by seven. In Pennsylvania, the majority of polls show Obama leading by at least five points.

Therefore, why is Obama campaigning in those two states when he has many other opportunities elsewhere? Obama has so many states he can visit. Obama can visit Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, the Dakotas, Montana, Colorado, and Nevada. In a year where the map will be expanding, Obama has to go to the places where the map could expand.

If I was Obama, here’s my campaign strategy. First, forget Ohio. The demographics do not favor Obama in Ohio this year. Usually, the race in Ohio comes down to southern Ohio where the religious voters are at. They never vote Democratic, unless it is a pro-life one. Also, a Youngstown station reports that there is a larger than normal turnout of Democrats campaigning for McCain in that part of the state. Northeastern Ohio is usually blue. So if Obama only wins Cleveland again like he did in the primaries, he will lose the state. Therefore, why spend the time and energy in Ohio?

Secondly, I’d limit my visits to Pennsylvania. If I was Obama, I’d rely more on the campaign advertisements in Pennsylvania. As of now, Obama leads in Pennsylvania by five to seven points in most polls. With those numbers, you are pretty assured in Pennsylvania. So just run the advertisements on the television to keep the lead over a few points. If he does that, Pennsylvania will be his this time around. I’d only come back to Pennsylvania if the polls all show a tie or close to a tie here.

Thirdly, keep marching through Virginia and Florida. Both of these states have been ignored by the McCain Campaign this time around, which could hurt McCain. Florida is a state that is always close. Florida has the right demographics too, which would favor Obama. In Florida, you have many Hispanics, women, and African Americans, which have favored Obama down there. Also, Florida, unlike Ohio, has many newer voters. Ohio just has the old voters. With polls tied in Florida in almost every single poll, I say Florida should continue to be a highly targeted state for Obama. Virginia should be the other highly targeted state because of the northern region of the state. The north part of the state helped Senator Jim Webb win over incumbent George Allen. Obama should use those voters to turn out, as well as the new voters he got in the primary. If he does that, Virginia is winnable for Obama.

Fourthly, Obama must use the west to his advantage. There are many things favoring Obama out west right now. Obama currently has major leads among the Hispanic community, which are all found in the west of the country. I would continue to go out there and continue to appeal to them. Colorado and Nevada are really tight right now in the latest polls. So if Obama can continue to make a wave of Latinos to vote for Obama out there, he has a good chance to win those states, which would probably make the difference for the election. Then there are polls in Montana and the Dakotas showing tight races. Again, it is because of new voters. If Obama continues to go there and spend resources, he should play it real competitive there.

If Obama can manage to have an effective west strategy with Latinos, travel to the real battleground states, and stay away from fake battleground territory, Obama should be fine in what seems to be another close election. Strategy is everything for both campaigns and ever since Obama chose Biden to be the running mate, the strategy of where they went has been a poor one. Yet, Obama still manages to pull dead even in many of those swing states. Therefore, go to the swing states and ignore states where you know how the outcome will turnout.

seanbracken@bluehorizondaily.com